Forex News Today: Market Analysis for Traders

Gold fell about 1.49% to $4,163 on Monday as a firmer US Dollar, WTI near $93.69 and Fed hike bets weighed on XAU/USD. CPI and PPI are due this week.

Crude oil is near $104 a barrel as attacks on Riyadh's airport and tankers in the Strait of Hormuz put a fragile export recovery at risk.

Dated Brent neared $150 per barrel on October 12, 2026, far above futures near $105. GuruFocus linked the gap to small-cap oil producer Barnwell Industries (BRN).

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said Monday that rates need to be higher and inflation pressures have broadened. Here is how USD/JPY, AUD/USD, gold and Bitcoin are exposed.

The Dollar Index gained 0.27% to 102.21 in the week ended October 9 on hawkish Fed minutes, Middle East tensions and French fiscal worries. It stood at 102.44 on Monday.

The Dollar Index rose to just above 102.50, its highest since April 2025, as Brent climbed above $107 after fresh Russian strikes and a third Iranian tanker claim.

Strategist Jim Paulsen says the Walmart Recession Signal points to a US slowdown that could eventually push the Fed to cut rates after its 25 bp September hike.

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Gold broke two resistance lines intraday while the US dollar pushed higher. Analyst Anna Radomska says both moves still need daily closes, at 4202 for gold and 102.05 for the dollar.

Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman said the kingdom will expand oil pipeline capacity to 10 million barrels per day within two to three years, citing Houthi attacks.

Physically backed gold ETFs posted a 12th straight week of net inflows, with $2.08 billion in and $1.46 billion out. US funds lost $132 million; China added $365 million.

EUR/GBP resumed its bearish trend on Monday and tested a 16-month low of 0.8447. French debt, political deadlock and unrest weighed on the euro, while BoE hike expectations supported the pound.

The rupee gained 96 paise to 95.77 per dollar after RBI measures, but the Nifty 50 fell 0.70% as Brent held at $102-105 and FII outflows topped ₹3 lakh crore this year.

EUR/USD is consolidating near its lows as French debt concerns support the dollar. US CPI is due Wednesday, and the French budget faces parliamentary hurdles.

USD/IDR rose to around 17,940 in European hours on Monday as the Indonesian rupiah struggled with a policy trade-off between growth and currency defence.

USD/JPY drew buyers for a second day but lacked follow-through below the mid-158.00s. Fiscal worries in Japan and Middle East tensions are supporting the US dollar.

Goldman Sachs raised its December 2026 Brent forecast from $85 to $90 per barrel and kept its 2027 average at $80. It put the Brent risk premium at slightly above $20.

GBP/JPY extended gains for a second day to 209.91 as concerns over Japan's public debt, rising oil prices and weak household data kept the Yen under pressure.

WTI crude rose about 1% to around $91.90 on Monday. Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia outweighed Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire hopes and a Russian diesel supply deal.

The dollar index is holding just above 102.00 as softer US data reduce bets on a Fed hike this month. MUFG sees Wednesday's September CPI as the key test.

Gold slipped to around $4,176 on Monday after failing to hold above $4,200. Traders are waiting for Wednesday's US CPI data, which could shape the Fed's next move.