Goldman Sachs Brent Forecast Lifted to $90 a Barrel

Goldman Sachs raised its December 2026 Brent crude forecast to $90 per barrel from $85, a 6% increase, and left its 2027 average forecast at $80. The Goldman Sachs Brent forecast change puts oil-sensitive markets in focus as supply risks tied to a Middle East conflict persist.

Key Takeaways

Higher year-end target: Goldman moved its December 2026 Brent forecast up by $5 to $90 per barrel.
2027 unchanged: The bank kept its 2027 average Brent forecast at $80 per barrel.
Large risk premium: Goldman estimates the premium in Brent's forward price at slightly above $20 per barrel.

What Happened

Goldman Sachs lifted its December 2026 forecast for Brent from $85 to $90 per barrel. It kept the 2027 average for Brent at $80 per barrel.

The bank also set forecasts for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude. It sees WTI at $81 per barrel in December 2026 and at an average of $73 in 2027.

Goldman said any escalation in the conflict could push prices significantly above its forecasts. The report does not name the parties to the conflict or describe how it is developing.

Background

Middle Eastern supply is adjusting to the ongoing conflict. Goldman expects oil prices to decline eventually.

Persistent supply risks are expected to slow the reduction of risk premiums. Low inventories and the high sensitivity of oil prices to interest rates support the premium, according to the report. The report does not quantify the link to interest rates.

Market Impact

Brent crude: Goldman puts the risk premium in the forward price at slightly above $20 per barrel. That is the part of the price tied to supply risk rather than to its base forecast.
Brent scenarios: The upside case is $125 per barrel if production gaps widen significantly. The downside case is below $60 per barrel if production recovers more quickly.
WTI crude: WTI is priced below Brent. Goldman attributes the gap to high transportation costs from the U.S. to Europe, but the report gives no spread figure.

What to Watch Next

Gulf supply adjustment: Goldman expects faster-than-expected adjustments to offset the slower decline of risk premiums. The pace of production recovery also separates its base case from the sub-$60 scenario.
Conflict escalation: Goldman names escalation as the main route to prices well above its forecasts. The report mentions no scheduled events or data releases.

Bottom Line

Goldman has raised its near-term Brent view but left its 2027 path unchanged. It still expects oil prices to fall over time.

The report links no currency pair to the forecast and describes no market reaction. For currency traders, its Brent and WTI figures and the $20 risk premium estimate show how much of the oil price rests on supply risk.

Goldman Sachs Brent Forecast Raised to $90 for December 2026