Bloomberg survey lifts U.S. GDP outlook for 2026

Investing.com -- U.S. economic growth expectations edged higher in the latest Bloomberg News survey, with economists modestly upgrading their outlook for gross domestic product next year while leaving inflation and interest-rate forecasts largely unchanged.

GDP is now seen rising 2% in 2026, up from a 1.9% increase in the previous survey, according to the median estimate from a poll of as many as 84 economists conducted between Dec. 12 and Dec. 17. 

Economists also nudged up their view for growth this year, now forecasting GDP to expand 2% year over year, compared with a prior estimate of 1.9%. 

Inflation expectations, however, were slightly lowered. Consumer price inflation in 2026 is forecast at 2.8% year over year, down from 2.9% in the prior survey, indicating growing confidence that price pressures will continue to ease toward the Federal Reserve’s target.

Interest-rate expectations were unchanged. Respondents continued to forecast the Federal Reserve’s upper-bound policy rate at 3.25% by the end of 2026, below the current upper bound of 3.75%, implying gradual easing over the next two years.

Elsewhere, ING economists and strategists expect U.S. GDP growth of 2% in 2025, followed by a slight slowdown to 1.9% in 2026 before reaccelerating to 2.2% in 2027.

ING expects U.S. inflation to come in at 2.8% in 2025 and 2026.